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sanctions work (open.substack.com)

submitted 1 week ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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2.5 years to halve the reserves, the spend cannot be linear and I also don't think they need to get to zero to have a collapse.

... The economy is being funded by the cash reserves, which increases inflation, which leads to another round of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which makes it harder to borrow money, which is necessary for economic growth. Eventually, the cash reserves will run out. It took 2.5 years to deplete half the Russian reserves. Russia withdrew $37 billion to cover deficits in December 2022. It withdrew $20 billion to cover deficits in December 2023. It only has $54 billion left.

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[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 week ago (9 children)

That's cool, but I'd like to see them start selling any meaningful amounts of their gold reserves. Putin was preparing for sanctions since 2006 and they currently hold 2,335.85 tonnes of gold that is worth approximately $144.94 billion. They also produce circa $20 billion worth of gold per year with plans to ramp it up a bit. Not enough to cover the war effort, but it helps them. Once this chart goes down we'll know they're in trouble.

The question I have is - how to get India off of the Russian oil supply?

[–] [email protected] 15 points 1 week ago

My impression is that it's exactly what Ukraine is doing by attacking oil refineries and reserves - make russia decide wether to sell or use themselves for the war.

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