this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2023
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His Mars plan cannot pan out, no more than using rockets in place of airplanes for international travel.
The man is a compulsive attention seeker. He owns some companies that legitimately are good at what they do, arguably pioneers in their field. It's not enough for him. SpaceX being the leading rocket launcher is not enough for him. Doing something already possible, even if done many times better or cheaper is not flashy enough for him. He needs to go to Mars.
The problem with that is that he is probably going to at least destroy the companies having them chasing his pie in the sky ideas as well as possibly having people die (depending on how far along he manages to take some of his plans).
I thought what he said about his new AI company was hilarious. His new AI company seeks to ‘understand the true nature of the universe’. Just jaw droppingly pretentious, and it is so on-brand for him, as techno-Jesus. Just having a normal AI company isn’t enough - it has to be accomplishing something ridiculous.
There's nothing wrong with SpaceX's Mars launch plan, and while the rocket travel plan is niche (read: ultra rich), it's viable assuming Starship winds up hitting the same reliability levels as airplanes. Course, worst thing that happens is a couple hundred millionaires and billionaires die, so... I see no downsides lol.
Obviously, I'm not gonna defend Elon himself, but sending a Super Heavy to Mars isn't some grand project like it would be for NASA. For one, other than the engines it only takes a couple of months to build a new booster and Starship, and for two it would take a minimum of 6 months for the Starship to reach Mars after launch (from the optimal window), essentially tying up a single Starship. It also tests low gravity propulsive landing, which is being designed for one of the Artemis landers, as well as the fuel conversion process using solar power to convert CO2 into methane rocket fuel. Which would greatly simplify future NASA projects for Mars.
I doubt there would be a NASA mission on an untested launch platform, but the lack of payload is also what makes it so cheap. They might toss some projects as a just in case, but it's otherwise an interplanetary proof of concept. I might hate Elon, but SpaceX is currently the best rocket company around, with the Super Heavy likely to make the Space Launch System obsolete the moment it's certified for government launches.
If you mean launching a rocket to Mars, yes eventually they will be able to do that. That is not what Musk's bullshit. It's a permanent base with people on Mars.
The rocket travel plan is not niche, it's impossible. Sound (environmental) concerns, refueling time cutting into the flight time benefit on turnover, Gs exerted on launch etc. Moreover Musk billed it as a regular service not a "dive to Titanic" kind of activity for billionaires.
It's also impossible to make a rocket as reliable as a plane. If you seriously consider that possible I cannot argue with you on any other point. Just the planes ability to land and maneuver unpowered makes it much more safer and reliable. The nature of it's fuel itself makes it much safer and reliable.
Starship/SuperHeavy is not ready. Engine production rate is a huge problem and they need a lot of them per vehicle. They also currently are unreliable with quite a few failures on the last launch. Some might be a result of the first failing but there were at least two clusters of failure, suggesting at least two independent failures.
So when they get SS/SH working the best thing to do would be to take government contracts, or fly Starlink satellites up if it's profitable. But yeah sending a rocket to Mars for free is exactly the kind of stunt I would expect Musk to do. Like demanding the launch to be on 4/20.
Oh don't be so hard on the idea... I think we should encourage Musk to launch himself and other billionaires to Mars 💪
Unfortunately I don't think he is the guy to actually put himself in harm's way l.