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I didn't say anything about victories. I couldn't give a shit about who is winning or losing I would prefer the fighting to stop immediately it's all a waste of lives and the destruction of families.
I don't think we should be counting Pringlez as gone, Wagner are training Belarus troops I'm not convinced that he isn't involved in that given that he moved to Belarus.~
What I'm talking about is the 100k troops and 1k tanks that have been built up for the new Russian push. We might see a big arrow offensive again instead of this attrition stuff that has been going on. It's all speculation obviously but the telegrams feel a lot like they did before Bahkmut when the rumours were circling that it was going to be next, this makes me think that this is actually going to happen fairly soon. But hey I've been wrong before so ehhh
Bit annoying that just having any kind of conversation here gets you downvoted for apparently no reason at all. Weird userbase in this comm, doesn't happen anywhere else on lemmy.
I downvoted you because you're saying false/insane things. That's the point of downvotes.
What false things have I said? The troop build up they've been doing has been well known for a long time now, like literally months they've been doing this buildup for. Many are talking about it, both pro-russian and pro-ukrainian.
https://youtu.be/38Mcg_hrQLk
https://youtu.be/PXhg9DfTIVg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTTxcfKAmqA
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/56341
https://t.me/rybar/50008
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17195
It's like some of you aren't actually paying any attention to anything other than ABC/Reuters/CNN. These outlets are useless for speculation content you have to go elsewhere for it.
What are the potential targets of the build-up? Just advancing the line after Ukraine has exhausted a lot of it's force on its counteroffensive? Or would there be a option between a few cities? Maybe cities that sit in the middle of several supply routes?
Looks like it's Svatova with a push that looks intended to go towards the Kupyansk direction to me but it's hard to tell, a big push could change quickly depending on level of resistance and any encirclements that might happen. Assuming they actually broke the line in some way. The Russian attempt to do a big offensive could go as badly as the Ukrainian one, I wouldn't rule that out with the cluster munitions which could easily slow them down.
I remember reading a Mearsheimer article about the problem with offensives. Whoever defends, traditionally has a 3:1 advantage by virtue of staying still. But in a war like this, that can change from day to day or month to month. So while Ukraine doesn't seem to be doing much of significance in its counter-offensive, I agree that Russia will have a hard time when it goes on the offensive again.
Still, the problem for Ukraine seems to be its size in comparison tp Russia. Going by the same article, Russia has a 5:1 to 10:1 artillery advantage and a 2:1 casualty rate in its favour. The longer the war, the greater Russia's advantage, and every offensive and counter-offensive contributes to that advantage. What is 2:1 today will become 3:1, 4:1, etc, as the toll will always be worse for Ukraine, unless something drastic changes, which would come as a surprise if it happens.
As you say elsewhere, it's all just a massive waste of lives. The sooner the decision-makers realise that and negotiate for peace, the better.
Can't say that would enjoy walking into that kind of maelstrom.
There is a 0% chance Russia has "thousands of functioning tanks" that mysteriously weren't deemed necessary during their worldwide embarrassment of logistics last year.
I didn't say thousands. I said a thousand. It's actually estimated closer to 900 in this buildup along with the 100k troops but that's neither here nor there really. Maybe if you actually bothered to read or watch anything I send you then you would know this? The issue here is that you're unwilling to take onboard any information unless it comes from your little circle of neoliberal media sources, which are always late, and always doing an incredibly repetitive narrative that really doesn't serve to learn or understand much at all. This leaves you completely unaware of what is actually happening.
It's less that I don't believe you (or can't click links) and more that I doubt, severely, Russia's ability to employ said armor to any degree of effectiveness.
The effectiveness of the armour entirely depends on how many Javelins Ukraine have left in my opinion. These were causing the bulk of Russian losses. The way this has been dragged on and delayed and delayed and delayed could imply that the Russians have been aiming to deplete the supplies and munitions that the Ukrainians have in order to make an offensive viable. The west doesn't really have much left of this shit to give them either without taking it literally out of the hands of active units. Western manufacturing is not keeping up with the rate at which things are getting used.
I'm not ruling out that their offensive will go as badly as the Ukrainian one. It really depends on what they have left, how many weapons supply dumps the Russians have been managing to destroy with those regular missile attacks, etc etc.
No, it's mines and artillery.
Dude this started out with Ukrainians making molotovs. Now they are getting shipments of Bradleys and multiple types of tanks. The west is capable of sustaining Ukraines ammo needs for a while. The US has already went from producing 14k shells a month to 24 with the goal of 85k a month by 2028. That's just the US, now factor in all the European countries doing the same.
You need to stop listening to whatever sources you are reading.
Will you remove your downvote now that Kupyansk is almost taken by the Russians?
Nah
Ok champ