this post was submitted on 28 Dec 2023
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Well I’m no oracle, but I’ll try to paint a picture. Just know it’s mostly a creative exercise with some educated guesses.
The following pertains to the US, specifically, with a rough timeline of 30 years, and I’ve split them into groups based on probability.
Near guaranteed events
Pretty likely
Likely but complicated mainly by either demographic interference (overlapping sociopolitical cleavages) or the sheer magnitude of political and/or logistical effort involved:
Likely but maybe beyond the 30 year timeframe
Full constitutional redefinition of US electoral systems from single member district majority to a modern multi member district plurality. That is, finally replacing our cantankerous, broken, and highly unrepresentative electoral system, doomed by Duverger’s law to an endless battle of red vs blue, with a modern proportionally representative coalition governance.