this post was submitted on 15 Jan 2024
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Peace talks without Russia? With hopes of countries in the Global South and China to participate? This is just more lip service, no peace will ever come from this if the opposition is not present. I doubt the Global South and China will want to waste their time with this shit.
I think it's pretty likely that there will be a military coup at some point and then actual negotiations on the terms of surrender will start.
The problem is who will coup them? The fascists depleated themselves pretty badly on one hand but surely part of all the weapons that disapeared has gonne to them, so supposedly they are armed with war grade weaponery. There is probably widespread anti-war sentiment among the people, so the coup could come from some kind of popular movement who want the war to end, but who would lead it? The communist party or a popular front containing them? Do they currently have the ability to do that? I'm sure they could agitate and recrute pretty fast under these circumstances but them being an illegal party and the leaders being in prison make it difficult I suppose.
I don't know much about the political situation in Ukraine so those are just suppositions.
I would expect it would be the military that will coup the civilian government once they realize that the war is lost. Most of the ideologically aligned and motivated people are dead at this point. So, the morale within the military is pretty low, and the understanding that they're just being used as cannon fodder for NATO is sinking in. I don't think there's any chance of communists getting in power there. What's most likely is that Russia will install a puppet regime as part of the terms of surrender.
I remember reading in some Western newspaper that Russia wanted an interim government with Viktor Yanukovych as its leader. But I doubt that this was more than just anti-Russian propaganda. I believe Yanukovych is unpopular in Ukraine, and if they had a plan to set up a puppet government, it would probably just be a pro-Russian general.
Exactly, it's almost certainly going to be somebody from the military.
I'm wondering if Zelensky is trying to escape before some bullets find their way into his head.
I'd be surprised if he wasn't looking for a way out at this point. It's pretty clear that the whole house of cards is going to collapse any day now.
If he is then I’m sure the Canadian government already has a nice mansion set up for him in Ottawa.
I don't need bullets; I need a CIA funded retirement in a US client state.