this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2024
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One data point doesn't make a trend. The Chinese economy isn't collapsed, but the rate of growth of GDP for China has been negative (rate of growth, it's still positive growth) since at least 2012 from what I can see. The US rate of growth is fairly static over the same time (a slightly positive rate of growth, but not much), but about half the value of China's.
Don't cherry pick data. It's not useful.
Even the most orthodox of economists almost universally agree that growth diminishes as a country becomes more developed since the low hanging fruit of development is exhausted and more capital and resources are necessary for the same amounts of growth.
China's growth rate trending down over time is no more an indication of any sort of stagnation or collapse than one year of growth is an indication of economic strength.
Ironically you're not doing substantially less cherry picking than you're accusing OP of by engaging in shallow single factor analysis.
This is exactly what I'm saying. The growth is coming to a more reasonable level. It's steadily trended down for years now, and will likely end up near US levels if I had to guess.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-china/
If that is exactly what you meant to say then I suggest you put more thought into how you phrase things because that's not the meaning I extracted from your post and I don't think I'm alone in that based on the other responses here.
Furthermore, there is no such thing as an objectively "reasonable" rate of growth for a country since the physical, social, and economic factors behind growth are different for each country.
No, there isn't a "reasonable" rate of growth. Of course. It is just what it is. GDP isn't even useful to an average person. I was only commenting on the OP because it's misleading (on purpose) and there's no need for that.
True, it’s just basic tendency for the rate of profit to fall.
The criteria for the GDP measure changed in 2009 which put a heavier weight on R&D capitalization. This makes it an unfair comparison since China economy is mostly manufacturing-based. The fact that their growth rate is so high despite this is very notable.
You're the one doing mental gymnastics here. "Oh yeah the Chinese economy is growing every year but it's not GROWING growing, you see if you jumble the numbers a bit more you can actually get a negative number" fuck off dude.
using differential equations to prove China is failing lol
also, a lower % one year than the year before could also indicate relatively stable absolute levels of growth
Someone please show me the snap and jerk of the Chinese economy that's the only way we can be sure
I'm not jumbling numbers. Just look at a chart of GDP over time, or easier GDP change over time. It's easy to see. I'm not saying China is collapsing, but the growth is slowing. There's no need to make things up. It's still growing faster than almost anyone else.
Well yeah. This is clearly just a post making fun of all the "China is collapsing" shit you see in liberal media and spaces when the truth continues to be the opposite. Probably not aimed at you if you understand the nuances.
Yeah look at the numbers why don’t you. IMF you are using predicts G7 will do far worse than China. In fact the forecast for the US in 2024 is just 1%.
So you might have made a point about global slowdown where China is still outperforming everyone, but you chose something else…
Doesn't the US count things like the excessive healthcare costs into its GDP?
it also counts debt and financial services lol, so the more times you re-sell somebodys mortgage, the more "productive" the economy is
Also, unequal exchange.
John Smith - The GDP illusion
Also the bloated contracts the US military contractors get where everything is twice as expensive than it needs to be.
That's only a problem for those who demand exponential growth. And your assumptions are based on the unsustainable model of western imperialism; as China implements it's green energy, transport, automated agriculture, and housing policies, those sectors won't need to keep 'growing' as they do in capitalist states to prop up GDP. Even if it's right that if the slowing rate of growth leads to a net GDP shrinkage, it doesn't portend collapse.
That's not counting the effect of BRICS+ and the BRI on interpreting GDP. You don't need such a high GDP when you cooperate with your neighbours, when your GDP isn't a measure of how much you bully your neighbours and oppress your foreign and domestic workforce.
Many have repeatedly and outstandingly wrongly claimed either bluntly or in what they think is 'clever' subtleness that China is about to collapse. Do you really want to be in that crowd when the music stops?
I personally think GDP is a measure of extremely limited value anyway because I've lived in the USA my whole life and that static rate of growth has apparently resulted in the quality of life of me and everyone I know getting slightly worse every year. Where all that wealth is going matters as much if not more than how much wealth there is when trying to gauge how successful a nation is.
Dude, GDP only matters for that. I'm not the one who started talking about GDP. Either this thread is useless because the measure (GDP) is useless, or it's perfectly fine to talk about the context of what the threads about. Either way, it's the OP you should complain about.
Anyway, China's GDP is growing at about double the US's. It doesn't matter though, right? It's growing at a negative rate, but it's still growing faster than almost anyone else, because China('s government) cares about GDP, even though GDP doesn't help the average person.
Comparing the most recently available GDP growth data for one year across multiple major economies : cherry picking
Wondering why data from several decades ago (during the height of rapid massive industrialization that countries tend to only ever do once in their entire history) wasn’t included : not cherry picking
One year is meaningless. A few years ago China's economy did much worse (covid), so someone could pick that year and make things up. You need to look at a trend for it to mean anything.
All knowledge must include trend lines, otherwise it is not knowledge. Thus spake the god of epistemology.
Orcocracy's razor.
This is literally the GDP growth rate. I don’t think you know what you are talking about, but please point us to a definition of the indicator you are talking about as well as to the comparison by country.
I think they're comparing the 2nd derivative of GDP; the growth rate is the 1st derivative.
The claim is roughly:
The US is growing slowly, but doing so at a consistent pace. It will keep growing 2% indefinitely.
China is growing faster now, but the rate is slowing year over year. They will grow 5% this year, 4% next year,... The implication is that they'll eventually settle domewhere below the US for (preferred boogeyman reason)
Of course the premise is low value speculation, but the math concepts can be parsed.
yeah they're talking about the rate of the rate of growth.. which maybe helps them with cognitive dissonance by still being able to find some negative thing about why China still seems to be doing just fine
I don't need to find anything negative with China. I don't have an issue with China. Look at this graph and tell me it's going up.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-china/
This is IMF forecast data. Check how it looks like for the G7. Spoiler: it’s far worse than this forecast for China. How does the forecast of 1% US growth in 2024 fit into your “stable growth of the US”?
China is still growing far faster than the G7 so you missed the point entirely.
I'm not claiming this. Nothing can.
Pretty much this, without the boogeyman reason. I'm not claiming a reason. I don't even think it'll be below US levels necessarily, but it won't keep growing as fast as it was. The trend is pretty steady, for the US and China, though things of course change and it's probably logarithmic I'd guess, not linear. It'll steady out somewhere. (Edit: Well, it'll steady out per capita probably, which is part of why GDP is so useless. It's not measured per capita.)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-china/
There's no need to make things up. Either China (and any other country) can stand on its own or it can't. People shouldn't be mislead. Now, I don't think GDP is that useful, but I didn't start the thread about GDP.
It's 1 year. The rate at which it's growing is negative. If the trend continues it goes below US levels fairly soon, though it's GDP so who cares.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-china/