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Russia says US support for Ukraine will end as ‘humiliating fiasco’ like ‘Vietnam and Afghanistan’ (thehill.com)

submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 12 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (10 children)

The Kremlin warned that American support for Ukraine could turn into a decade-long folly

If I were to bet, it would be that the US can keep this up for a decade more-readily than you can.

I don't think that this is going to keep going for a decade, though.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/11/the-clock-is-ticking-russia-has-a-one-year-reserve-of-weapons/?sh=1e6a63f915e0

Russian industry produces 500 or 600 new tanks and maybe a little more than a thousand new fighting vehicles every year. The Russian military loses more than a thousand tanks and close to 2,000 fighting vehicles every year—and the loss rate is increasing.

There’s a gap—one the Kremlin fills by pulling out of long-term storage tanks and fighting vehicles dating back to the 1970s, or even the ’60s or ’50s in some cases. But these old vehicles are a finite resource. Built during the Soviet Union’s industrial heyday, they cannot be replaced with new production.

Ominously for the Russians, the most recent projections anticipate that, as early as mid-2025, there won’t be any more old tanks and fighting vehicles left in storage. “Time is running out for Russia,” wrote Artur Rehi, an Estonian soldier and analyst.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 5 months ago (9 children)

“Time is running out for Russia,” wrote Artur Rehi, an Estonian soldier and analyst.

That's the phrase we hear for years now. It shouldn't be taken into consideration. A country of 140mil and 1\4 of land that won't back off can fight for a very long time until it runs out of resources or people. After two years it sounds like a copium and a reason to just sit and wait, while another country's clocks are ticking faster.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Besides, isn't China already selling ammo to them? I could very well see China selling vehicles to Russia in large quantities, even on loan – and all it will take is Russia to become even more of a Chinese satellite state.

We tried sitting this out and it didn't work. Ukraine's new approach of actively making Russia hurt looks more promising.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 5 months ago

Russia becoming essentially a Chinese satellite was always how this ended. The question is how much damage is done along the way and how well our nice little international status quo fares in the meantime.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 5 months ago

Not China directly, but Iran and NK as proxies. Some Chinese banks stopped processing russian businesses' payments since the start of this year. They don't want to risk their 50% of market in EU and US over merely 3% purchases from Russia, so they themselves started to clean the room.

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