this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2023
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I think after Poland ignored two Russian missiles, putin is thinking to use Wagner from Belarus to test and see what will happen if NATO country gets attacked. The normal answer would be that it would be war between Belarus and NATO. Which should be fairly quick. He is trying to tip the scale by saying Russia will be also back Belarus if attacked (BTW Hitler also stated WW2 claiming Poland attacked Nazi Germany), hoping that NATO won't back up Poland.
I'm pretty sure Ukraine said those were their missiles.
Indeed they were. Ukrainian S-300 missiles, they probably malfunctioned and went off in a random direction.
https://i.imgur.com/LpOHDV6.png
Nope, they didn't. That's what was the interesting thing about it.
NATO said they were Ukrainian. Ukrainians stayed adament they were russian. Ukraine didn't even apologize to Poland for their (allgedly) missile killing two polish citizens.
That's what made clear to me that it was indeed a russian missile, and NATO covered it up because they didn't want to intervene. Which is also why they denied Ukrainain specialists access to the impact site for days.
Thing is, every line Russia has drawn in the sand, accession to NATO, arms supplies to Ukraine etc have been proven to be empty words. Russia has backed off each time.
An attack on Poland from Belarus would quickly lead to an invasion from Poland. Securing Ukraine's northern border would free up a lot of Ukrainian resources and would put NATO soldiers in another neighboring country to Russia.
It would be suicide for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.