Fuck Putin
this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2023
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"Putin tells ____ any _____ is attack on Russia" is basically a meme now
Belarus better stay within its boarders, because that the only way Belarus will be attacked.
I think after Poland ignored two Russian missiles, putin is thinking to use Wagner from Belarus to test and see what will happen if NATO country gets attacked. The normal answer would be that it would be war between Belarus and NATO. Which should be fairly quick. He is trying to tip the scale by saying Russia will be also back Belarus if attacked (BTW Hitler also stated WW2 claiming Poland attacked Nazi Germany), hoping that NATO won't back up Poland.
I'm pretty sure Ukraine said those were their missiles.
Indeed they were. Ukrainian S-300 missiles, they probably malfunctioned and went off in a random direction.
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Nope, they didn't. That's what was the interesting thing about it.
NATO said they were Ukrainian. Ukrainians stayed adament they were russian. Ukraine didn't even apologize to Poland for their (allgedly) missile killing two polish citizens.
That's what made clear to me that it was indeed a russian missile, and NATO covered it up because they didn't want to intervene. Which is also why they denied Ukrainain specialists access to the impact site for days.
Thing is, every line Russia has drawn in the sand, accession to NATO, arms supplies to Ukraine etc have been proven to be empty words. Russia has backed off each time.
An attack on Poland from Belarus would quickly lead to an invasion from Poland. Securing Ukraine's northern border would free up a lot of Ukrainian resources and would put NATO soldiers in another neighboring country to Russia.
It would be suicide for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Putin's standup act is very funny. He should quit his day job & take it up fulltime.
Idk, last guy who laughed at him had his country invaded.
Putin's been invading Ukraine since 2014. His 3-day special operation is going on for 514 days, had him running from a mutiny (I need a ride,not ammo!), has killed 241,330 Russians, has the Kerch bridge opening and closing like a fucking accordion, and is a global criminal. And all against a country with no nukes, no navy, barely an airforce, a tenth of Russia's defense budget, and 28 times smaller than Russia.
He's losing so badly, the whole world's laughing at him.
As I said earlier, Putin's standup act is very funny.
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Oh no, I'm shaking in my boots. It sure would be a shame if the might of the Russian military invaded my country. They're having trouble invading a small, neighboring nation by land, but I should totally fear them crossing an ocean to invade a nation that has an objectively superior military. Maybe if I defend him online, Putin will spare me. Notice me, Putin-san! uwu.
This night for the first time Polish regular soldiers fired on our territory. Since 5:45 a.m. we have been returning the fire, and from now on bombs will be met by bombs.
Can you cite a source?
Edit: thanks for the sources
This was fragment of Hitler's speech on September 1st, 1939.
https://carolynyeager.net/gleiwitz-%E2%80%9Cfalse-flag%E2%80%9D-incident-pure-fiction
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Cool. Poland ainβt gonna start shit.
Any attack on Poland will trigger Article 5.
Poland won't, but according to Hitler in September 1st, 1939, Nazi Germany was defending itself from Polish attacks.
I think putin is thinking of forcing Belarus with Wagner to attack Poland and see how NATO will react when the threat would be war with Russia (if NATO will respond, which I hope it will, I think Belarus will get the same help as Armenia).
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No, Putin. An attack on Belarus is only an attack on Belarus. Someone would have to attack Russia for it to be an attack on Russia. Look at a fucking map.
(Yes, Iβm being obtuse, but giving this asshole a hard time makes me smile. Cut me some slack.)
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I'm not up to snuff on NATO regulations. As I understand it, if a NATO nation gets attacked, the rest of them are obliged to defend, correct? What happens if that nation is "the aggressor". Like in this situation if Poland were to do a first strike against Belarus or Russia and they respond attacking Poland, is the rest of NATO obliged to help defend Poland?
No, NATO doesn't interfere if a member starts a war. It's a defensive treaty. That said, Poland alone wouldn't be able to do much, and democracies rarely openly declare war.
I had a deployment with Polish soldiers. They are a modern and extremely capable defensive force. It would likely turn into the same thing we're seeing in Ukraine (smaller force that is well trained and better supplied vs sending a lot of bodies and old tech). I don't think we'll ever see a Polish led force invading Belarus or Russia without a massive NATO backing and a lot of foreign units already on the way to support them. Defensively, they will fuck you up. Offensively, they don't have the man power to go deep into enemy territory.
The Polish have historical grudges with Russia and are chomping at the bit to hurt some Russians. It is probably NATO that is holding them back from sending units to Ukraine
However what if a NATO country starts a war with Belarus, and then Russia attacks the NATO country?
The NATO country would never have initiated a war with Russia, they would have initiated it with Belarus.
Does a NATO country automatically become vulnerable if they have any wars currently ongoing? Because that would mean Russia could have attacked America during the war in Afghanistan and NATO would not have been able to get involved.
It's probably a case where Russia could attack Poland's forces in Belarus but attacking Polish soil would involve article 5.
The way it works is that the attacked country invokes article 5. If the country does it then other members are obligated to help. If they don't, they are undermining NATO.
Having said that, NATO doesn't specify how countries supposed to respond. It could be something to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War
I think putin sending Wagner to Belarus is indeed thinking to force Belarus to attack Poland or a Baltic states and see what happens. Of course that would be simple, it would be Belarus vs NATO, and would end up quickly.
So he is tipping the scale and saying that attacking Belarus will be also attacking Russia, hoping that it will be ignored like two Russian missiles hitting Poland. If it won't be ignored, then he is just sacrificing Belarus.
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So is Belarus going to attack Poland now or is Putin planning a false flag attach again?
I think it's probably Wagner was moved there for that reason and putin wants to test if alliance will be afraid to reason.
If NATO responds then he sacrifices just Belarus, but if it won't then other eastern countries are at risk.
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I have a suspicion of what is going on in Putin's head:
- 2021/early 2022, he thought his military was amazing and could take Ukraine in 3 days
- that went horribly wrong, russian tanks and other weapons exploded all over
- only two options: western weapons are incredibly better than russian weapons, or russian generals are incompetent
- fire generals left and right over 2022, it doesn't really get any better
- winter break
- 2023, the long dreaded Ukrainian counter offensive is coming
- West has given Ukraine only a handful of weapons, not enough for a sweeping, brutal offensive
- Ukrainian offensive stalls
- Putin's advisors show him the same destroyed Bradley and Leopard 2 tanks all over, from different angles
- "Holy shitballs russian weapons aren't inferior to western weapons, it really was just stupid generals, we really destroyed hundreds of NATO tanks"
- fuck yeah, with that sorted out I can take on the baltics and Poland
Can't wait for Season 2. Season 2 has been confirmed, right?
Putin says a lot of stupid shit he's incapable
of doing, why would this be different?
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