this post was submitted on 13 Dec 2023
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Fediverse
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They can pull it - most users in Threads will be interacting with other Threads users and content. Mastodon will be simply "that ideologically weird corner", and in practice they won't miss it.
For scale: Threads currently has 100M users. The Fediverse as a whole has 1.5M.
And I think that will go both ways. I mean, we all already have the option of joining threads right now to interact with those 100M users but I have a feeling most that are here aren't.
Their joining the fediverse will be more disruptive than their leaving it I think. And that's not even considering the higher costs to anyone running instances, since all that extra volume won't be processed and stored for free (though admittedly I am not familiar with the implementation details of how federated content is handled).
Eternal September-like? It's possible.
13+ million total users: https://fediverse.observer/stats
I'm counting only monthly active users, for both sides. FediDB lists 1.2M for the Fediverse, your link lists 1.7M of them.