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I don't know California politics other than as it relates to national. What's Newsom's angle here? I ask because, at least at a glance, this seems like a loser for him. The best he can hope for is to demolish DeSantis. Let's assume he does--and it's certainly not a sure thing (the deck is stacked against him with the ref playing for the other team, after all)--but so what? DeSantis's fire is almost already out, and if it doesn't die on its own or thanks to Mr. Orange Indictment, the Mouse will finish him. Newsom's already a rising star; if he annihilates DeSantis he's basically punching down, and he's taking a huge risk by even volunteering for this, since if he fucks up he's done in national politics before he even started.
The best I can come up with is that this is a play by the party at large to try to revitalize Florida Man's campaign by getting some free press on him, either to force Trump to spend more to squash him or try to get a repeat of 1972 (i.e., Trump as Muskie). However, that's giving the Democratic party a lot of credit and making some pretty cynical assumptions about their future plans for Newsom.
This has been Newsome's shtick for a minute. During his reelection campaign, he spent campaign funds advertising on Fox in Florida. He's been going to red states to give speeches. He gave an interview to Sean Hannity just a month or so ago. He's brandishing his reputation as a democratic fighter not afraid to go into hostile territory and news environments to stand up for liberal values.
DeSanits in particular has been a foil for Newsome since at least the coronavirus days when Florida was open and getting crushed under the delta wave. He regularly attacks DeSantis on abortion, book bans, teaching that slavery wasn't so bad, on and on. When DeSantis sent migrants on a plane to California, Newsome instantly reacted suggesting that DeSantis could be charged with kidnapping (this made his staff none to happy btw, Newsome can be like Trump in that he tweets out policy forcing his staff to react without notice).
Newsome is term limited, so he's done in 2026(?). He's been on the campaign trail trying to become Bidens number one bestest surrogate. He's building his brand for a presidential run in 2028. Also he just loves the spotlight. I doubt there is much logic to that beyond that.
And it doesn't matter what happens at the debate, so there's no real downside. Viral clips will be shared of good zingers each contestant got in, each side will talk about how their guy crushed the other guy. None of this will change anyone's mind. It's all just a show, and Newsome loves to be on stage.
I mean this in the least condescending way possible, but you don't understand how American politics works.
The absolute best scenario for Democrats is for the Republicans to split their ticket between Trump and DeSantis - or anyone else, but there doesn't seem to be anyone else thus far with his pull on the national stage.
It'll be Clinton-Bush-Perot but in reverse.
Isn't that the most significant part of trump's personality, too? Trump just also has the indictments and history of losing.
Personally, my parents are lifetime Republicans and are looking to vote for anyone that's not Trump, because they see him as a distraction that is hard to portray as "better than the libs," especially since they are nominally Christian.
So I think there's a decent chance of DeSantis pulling at least a 5-10% of conservatives away from Trump.
DeSantis certainly started off as a strong contender, but he drank his own koolaid and commited the Cardinal Sin of actually attempting to make good on his promises which, surprise surprise, turned out not to have very good results.
We hate wokeness! Therefore, I'm going to get into a war with the woke single most powerful corporation in my home state, which has far more monetary and legal weight than all my donors combined!
We hate the LGBTQ+! Therefore, I am going to implement agressive anti-LGBTQ+ laws that will make massive swaths of people feel unsafe in Florida and essentially annhialate the tourism industry that fuels most of the state's GDP!
We hate immigrants! Therefore, I am going to push through policies that essentially force all immigrants out of Florida and decimate any local businesses or industries that were relliant on the cheap labor!!
For as much harm as Trump did, for a lot of real policy-making, he was either: mostly playing politics with the shit he "was trying to do", was contained by other politicians enough not to actually implement them, or was too incompetent to actually make his plans a functional reality. Actually kinda funny to think how much of a threat for dems DeSantis seemed just a couple of years ago as the "more calculating and insidious" version of Trump.
DeSantis stealing Trump votes requires him to run as an independent. If he loses the primary and doesn't go independent, all those votes just go back to Trump. I haven't heard anything about an independent run from him, but I might have just missed something.
I don't know if DeSantis would run as an independent, but I do know that my parents would vote for him if he did, especially since they live in CA where they're convinced their views in presidential elections don't make a bit of difference. I absolutely guarantee that Trump would run as an independent if he doesn't get the nomination, since admitting defeat gracefully is not something he is able to do.
Plus, we just need more people thinking DeSantis has a chance before the primaries and the situation for the RNC gets even more muddled
Edit: plus, Republicans getting upset or ambivalent about the nominee is a sure way to depress voter turnout, so the more infighting, the better for Democrats, even if DeSantis doesn't run as an independent
Definitely. I was hoping that DeSantis would just barely sneak by Trump in the primaries so Trump would have to run independent, and spoil the vote. It was extreme wishful thinking, but we all gotta dream, right?
This also raises his profile nationally.
How would Republicans split the ticket? Are you assuming one would run as independent after the primary?
Yeah I don't buy it - if trump was the runner up, I could totally see him running as an independent, but I don't see it for DeSantis, and even if he tried, I don't think he has the base anymore to actually pull it off.
You need the kind of blind adoration that Trump (for some reason) has in his following to make a 3rd party bid remotely feasible, DeSantis just doesn't inspire that in people.
Out best hope for a split conservative base was DeSantis winning the primaries and Trump switching to independent (because he's absolutely stubborn and prideful enough to do it), I don't see it happening the other way around
I think the idea is that if Tump didn't get the nomination he would run as an independent and hold the party hostage.
please happen, please. I want to see the absolute destruction to the party that supported a wannabe dictator
Yes. Trump has literally said he won't adhere to the results of the primary and will run regardless.
Gavin Newsom wants to be president. Maybe not this cycle, but defo the next cycle
I'd happily take four more Biden years, and then eight of Newsom - neither one is anywhere near perfect/ideal, but compared to the alternative...
I'd take a rotting corpse over the Republican fascist party
I'd take a pile of monkey poop over anything conning out of the gop right now
Probably partly related to Newsom's continual use of the "pied piper" strategy, trying to boost right-wing opponents so that he doesn't have to face off against anyone left of center.
Yep, don't feed the trolls.
He's doing this because he wants to run for President in 28 and he is cultivating his brand on the national stage.
It's a big gamble tho, you're right about that.